QUICK LINKS
Denver6-4NuggetsTT 124.0–
7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center
New Orleans4-9 B2BPelicansTT 111.5–
Dallas7-5MavericksTT 118.0–
7:30 PM ETRocket Arena
Cleveland6-7 B2BCavaliersTT 109.5–
Detroit8-3PistonsTT 116.5–
8:00 PM ETKaseya Center
Miami6-6 B2BHeatTT 112.0–
Brooklyn3-8NetsTT 109.5–
8:00 PM ETFedExForum
Memphis8-4 B2BGrizzliesTT 114.0–
Chicago2-9 B2BBullsTT 110.5–
8:00 PM ETTarget Center💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · MIN 46% TO WIN BY 20+ · MIN -16.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · MIN 60% TO LEAD BY 20+
Minnesota9-3TimberwolvesTT 127.0–
⭐ Projected Winners (5)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
Rating basis: "Rated without" names the injured players already excluded from that team's sim rating. "Rating pending" means a player was just ruled out and the re-sim has not landed yet.
MIN ★★★CHI @ MIN · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Edwards, DiVincenzomarket 88%; model 86%; CHI on back-to-back
89%win prob
DEN ★★DEN @ NOP · 7:00 PM ETRated without: Strawthermarket 83%; model 71%; NOP on back-to-back
79%win prob
DET ★DET @ MIA · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Duren, Joemodel 69%; market 61%; MIA on back-to-back
67%win prob
MEM -BKN @ MEM · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Jerome, Grant, Edey +3model 66%; market 63%; MEM on back-to-back
62%win prob
DAL -DAL @ CLE · 7:30 PM ETRated without: Christie, Lively, Larrea +1market 75%; model 40%; CLE on back-to-back
61%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Jamal Murray o3.5 3PM DEN @ NOP
Soft vs PG all season (#29) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
2
Cade Cunningham o2.5 3PM DET @ MIA
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
3
Cedric Coward o1.5 3PM BKN @ MEM
Soft vs SG all season (#30) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 6 of 10
Over in 6 of the last 10 games
4
Zach Collins o1 3PM CHI @ MIN
Soft vs C all season (#27) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
5
Jamal Murray o24.5 PTS DEN @ NOP
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 18.3 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
6
Saddiq Bey o2.5 3PM DEN @ NOP
Soft vs SF all season (#25) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 9 of 10
Over in 9 of the last 10 games
7
Giannis Antetokounmpo o12.5 REB DET @ MIA
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 11.2 chances/Gm L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
Danny Wolf o1.5 3PM BKN @ MEM
Soft vs SF all season (#27) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 4 of 10
Over in 4 of the last 10 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Spencer Jones PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Trevon Brazile PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Julian Strawther AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Cam Whitmore PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Ryan Nembhard PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Marvin Bagley III PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
+61 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Bobby Portis o6.5 PTS MIA vs DET
5/5Last 5
Santi Aldama o7.5 PTS DAL vs CLE
5/5Last 5
Jeremiah Fears o18.5 PTS NOP vs DEN
5/5Last 5
WC
Walter Clayton Jr. o7.5 PTS DAL vs CLE
5/5Last 5
Zach Edey o7.5 REB MEM vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Santi Aldama o3.5 REB DAL vs CLE
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 84-57 · 60%＋
84-57 graded60% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
7-3 70%
70 to 79%
34-23 60%
60 to 69%
39-29 57%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Murray | Under 11.5 PTS | 65% | 16 | Miss |
| Darryn Peterson | Under 4.5 REB | 65% | 7 | Miss |
| Gui Santos | Over 2.5 REB | 73.2% | 4 | Hit |
| Kingston Flemings | Under 3.5 REB | 65% | 1 | Hit |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Under 7.5 REB | 65% | 7 | Hit |
| Karlo Matkovic | Over 7.5 PTS | 68.9% | 1 | Miss |
| Keegan Murray | Under 4.5 REB | 65% | 7 | Miss |
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 12.5 PTS | 68.7% | 21 | Hit |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.